The Delicate Dance of Mike Pence

This CNN report is a damning portrait of Trump's treatment of Mike Pence during the past week.  Apparently today was the first time that Trump & Pence have spoke since before the riot at the Capitol.  

     At some point in the future Mike Pence will probably write a memoir about his experience as VP and it will be interesting to read the behind the scenes drama about all this -- which I suspect the CNN article here provides a hint of what it will be like.  Some highlights:

"Before their Oval Office meeting Monday, the pair [Pence & Trump] had not spoken since before Trump's rally on the Ellipse last week. Their last conversation was punctuated by a vulgarity the President uttered after Pence informed him, for a final time, that he could not unilaterally reject the results of the election, something he had already told Trump in previous meetings that often dragged on for hours.

"...The final conversation left Trump irate, and his anger emerged during the rally itself, when he told the crowd he hoped "Mike has the courage to do what he has to do" and ignores "the stupid people that he's listening to.""

".... Even when the President returned to the White House while his crowd set off for the Capitol, Trump's anger at Pence did not abate. And as the crowd broke down doors, mobbed the building, and in some cases appeared to be hunting Pence himself, Trump remained focused on the perceived disloyalty.

".... After Wednesday's events, Pence allies were aghast the President did not call to ensure the vice president's safety, or the safety of his wife and daughter, who had accompanied him as he performed the ceremonial role of overseeing the Electoral College tally.

".... Inside the besieged Capitol, it was
Pence and not Trump who coordinated phone calls with law enforcement and security agencies. Afterward, Pence phoned the family of the fallen Capitol Police officer, Brian Sicknick, even as Trump remained silent. 

"....On Saturday, a source close to the vice president told CNN that Pence had not ruled out entirely an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment, and wants to preserve the option in case Trump becomes more unstable. But he hasn't held discussions on the issue with members of the Cabinet, and still appears unlikely to move forward with it.

"Instead, Pence and his advisers seem to be looking toward their final week in office with an eye toward his legacy, hoping to tout the administration's achievements. Advisers have been encouraging Trump to hold similar events, including on Middle East diplomacy and deregulation, but it's unclear whether he will agree to do so as he remains consumed with his permanent suspension on Twitter."

     Here's my thinking: The reason that the 25th amendment idea hasn't been shot down is that Pence is keeping it on the table as leverage against Trump, to try and control his behavior. (A few days ago there was a report that Pence rejected using the 25th, but then there was a subsequent report saying that Pence had not in fact rejected it, which I suspect means that the Pence people put out that correction, to make it known to media-watcher Trump that Pence had not ruled out using this power if he felt the need to use it.)

     The whole point of Pence's selection as VP in 2016 was as a reliable conservative Republican for traditional Republicans who were unsure about Trump. A good VP choice compensates for the weaknesses of the POTUS nominee, and Pence fulfilled that qualification perfectly. The campaign learned early on not to hold joint interviews (Trump & Pence sitting together being interviewed by a reporter) because often Trump would look skeptically at Pence when he spoke and disagree with him. Pence knew how to play the game of being the loyal #2 and to fulfill his role as a stabilizing force within a volatile administration.

     However, last week, when it came to fulfilling his civic obligations to the country or bowing to Trump's selfish desire to hold onto power no matter the cost, Pence bowed to the Constitution rather than the President. In addition, the majority of the Republican Party by that point, at least in Congress, was in favor of certifying the election and moving on, rather than going along with Trump's conspiracy fantasies. Pence has his eye on running in 2024, and will want to assure the majority of voters (not just Trump loyalists) that he would be a trustworthy choice as nominee and as President. He has the experience of being VP, he is a household name, and thus he would be the likely frontrunner in the race, assuming that Trump himself does not run.

     But actually invoking the 25th and removing Trump goes against Pence's brand as a calm, soothing, moderating voice. He doesn't want to be known as the person who removed Trump from office, because that will make him a traitor in the eyes of Trump fans. He wants his cake and to eat it, too -- to be able to say that he stood by the President to safeguard the country from the excesses and abuses of a novice politician, while at the same time saying that he refused to go along with the excesses and abuses of Trump's enemies in the Democratic Party. Critics will undoubtedly say that Pence enabled Trump, gave him an undeserved respectability, but Pence will answer that he was a steady hand who held the long view and refused to give in to the emotions of the moment when making his decisions -- just the kind of guy people will want in the White House regardless of their feelings about Trump.

     Unfortunately for Pence's political hopes, Trump is not going away. If Trump himself is unwilling or unable to run in 2024, his first choice will not be Pence. Trump would view a family member to be his heir apparent, preferably his daughter Ivanka, but assuming she doesn't want to run, then his son Donald Trump Jr. who has been the loudest, angriest voice of late. DTJr gives every indication that he thinks he is hot stuff who can repeat his father's success in 2016 in vanquishing over a dozen competitors in the primaries by throwing red meat at the base and appealing to their worst fears. 

     If DTJr runs, his father will either flat-out endorse him or strongly imply it. If that happens, and DTJr's campaign goes nowhere, then that will demonstrate that Trump's power in the party has diminished, allowing more Republicans to be critical of Trump without worrying about the political costs of doing so. (If DTJr loses the primary, Donald Trump will either claim it was rigged against him, or that his own son is a loser who can't replicate his father's success.)

     Pence will then be free to run as a sort of Republican version of Joe Biden, a healer of the country's fractured political landscape and a moderating voice among the extremists. By not removing Trump, he curries favor with those who fondly remember the Trump days, and by being at odds with Trump at this time, he shows that his loyalty was higher to the country than to his own boss. He will be able to dismiss the 25th amendment as an "extreme" remedy, and argue that his presence in the administration helped keep things calmer than they otherwise would have.

     A bigger problem for Pence is that he has no charisma -- he's too much of an android to excite voters. But if the primary voters gets behind someone too "hot" for comfort, then the party faithful may turn to Pence to be the nominee to avoid another Trump-style candidate from taking over the party again.