Some thoughts and predictions about the Republican race for President, even thought it's way early:
I'm going to predict that Ron DeSantis becomes the nominee. Here's why: Right now the Republican Party base is more fired up about "woke" issues than anything else, and DeSantis has made "woke" his main issue, moreso than any other candidate. DeSantis' quote that "Florida is where woke goes to die" has received wide coverage in the media and has made him the main "anti-woke" candidate, moreso than Donald Trump.
If you strongly oppose transgender rights and Drag Queen Story Hour and Disney and Bud Light and so on, then DeSantis is going to be the candidate who appears to be speaking about issues that you care about the most. In 2015-2016, it was the southern border and illegal immigration that fired up the base, and Trump was the candidate who was speaking out the most about that issue. So naturally Trump got a lot of support, for speaking out about what the base cared about. So that's why I think DeSantis will be the nominee this time around -- he is the candidate speaking out the most strongly about the main thing that the base feels the most passionately about: "woke."
In 2015, a lot of the other candidates didn't bother attacking Donald Trump because they didn't see him as a serious threat. By early 2016, when Ted Cruz finally got around to attacking Trump, it was too late. In 2023, Trump is already being criticized from some of the other candidates, some moreso than others. I think they are hesitant to attack Trump because it makes them look like they are siding with the "liberal media" and the Democrats by doing so. It's a lot easier for them to attack Ron DeSantis, who is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the nomination. This will create a feeling of DeSantis vs. everyone else, and I think that will cause a lot of Republican voters to rally around DeSantis as a result. Trump and the others will look like they are siding with leftists if they attack DeSantis for his "anti-woke" policies.
DeSantis could become the voice of those voters who are opposed to "woke," who hate what American society and culture (including corporate culture) has become, but are too afraid to say it out loud for fear of the blowback they would receive.
A vote for DeSantis would be a quiet way of proclaiming their disapproval. If Biden was offering a "return to normalcy" for voters tired of Trump, then DeSantis could offer a "return to normalcy" for voters tired of liberal progress -- for the many voters who think that we are currently living in the Twilight Zone and have had enough of it.
So, that's my prediction: DeSantis gets the most delegates and becomes the nominee. In ordinary times, that would be the end of it, and he would then stand a strong chance of being elected President in 2024. But when Trump is running, nothing is ordinary, and we have no way of knowing what would happen if Trump lost the nomination.
The best case scenario for DeSantis, if he got the most delegates to secure the nomination, is that the other candidates (including Trump) drop out of the race when the math becomes impossible for them to win, and endorse him. This is what normally happens during the primary process.
The worst case scenario for DeSantis, if he becomes the nominee, is that Trump refuses to accept the results, refuses to endorse the nominee, and declares himself to be the true nominee and runs in the general election anyway -- presumably as an independent, although possibly by having his followers in certain states have his name on the ballot as the nominee instead of DeSantis. This would be a nightmare for the Republican Party, that would split the conservative vote and ensure a Biden win in the general election.
It's fair to say that the "worst case scenario" described above could occur if anyone OTHER than Trump becomes the nominee. If anyone other than Trump gets the nomination, there is a chance that Trump will say the vote was rigged and refuse to accept the results. And that would lead to total chaos.
If DeSantis does win the nomination, I think that enough of the party will be behind him then that it won't matter as much what Donald Trump thinks about the matter. Either way, it looks like Ron DeSantis is the future, and we should probably all get used to pronouncing his name right ("dee" not "duh").
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