Here are some of my thoughts on the notion that Joe Biden should drop out of the race in order for a new, younger candidate to run who supposedly would have a better chance of beating Donald Trump. Looking at the polls right now, the evidence doesn't support such a change. There's nothing to indicate that a new candidate would do any better against Trump than Biden is doing.
Shown here is a screenshot from the FiveThirtyEight website, with recent poll results, where various Democrats went up against Trump. Only Michelle Obama (who isn't going to run, that's a pipe dream) beat Trump in these polls (by 11% to 12% points). Biden, however, came in even (tied) with Trump. The rest of the candidates pitted against Trump in hypothetical races -- Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, etc. -- were all beaten by Trump. Harris did better than the rest, losing to Trump by 1% point.
I think what is happening here is typical Democratic nervousness about blowing this election, and wishing for some unlikely pie-in-the-sky thing to happen to reassure them. But the solution that they are wishing for is no guarantee of success either.
So, here's an idea: Keep Biden on the ticket as President, and Harris on the ticket as Vice-President. If you are really concerned about Biden's ability to be Commander-in-Chief, then you have Kamala Harris right there as Vice-President to step in as President if the need ever arises. In effect, a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris, too -- so there's no need to have Joe drop out and replaced by Kamala if she's already there as second-in-line.
I'm reminded of how in April 1992, there was talk of trying to have an open convention because the candidate who had the most delegates, Bill Clinton, was considered by many to be unelectable in the general election due to his high negative approval ratings. The Los Angeles Times reported at the time about a "vote for Paul Tsongas" movement (Tsongas had already suspended his campaign) to deny votes to both frontrunner Clinton and his opponent Jerry Brown (who was still in the race):
"Among those backing the draft-Tsongas drive is former New York City Mayor Edward I. Koch, who, like some others, argues that a vote for Tsongas is the best way to serve notice on the Democratic Party that, “rather than pick from the current ‘losers,’ they prefer to throw open the convention” and select someone else.
"Koch mentions such names as Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. Koch did not cite his old adversary, New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, but others would deem him as someone to be considered in the event of a deadlock."
"... Such a showing for Tsongas would help to give Democratic voters with misgivings about Clinton another and more acceptable alternative than Brown, whom many view as simply a convenient vehicle for carrying their protest message against Clinton.
"For his part, Tsongas told The Times he still expects Clinton to be the nominee because of his huge delegate lead--1,015 to Tsongas’ 439 and Brown’s 153. But Tsongas conceded that it was at least “theoretically possible” for a deadlocked convention to turn to him."
Well, think again. Despite the warnings and fears about his unfavorability, Bill Clinton went on to win in 1992, and again in 1996. Giving the nomination to some "dream candidate" like Mario Cuomo would have been no guarantee of success in 1992, just like giving the nomination to Gavin Newsom in 2024. It would be a huge gamble with no sure payoff of success -- despite that being the whole reason for trying it, in order to win in November above any other concern.
Here's another thing to consider: Voters already voted for Joe Biden in the primaries. (Full disclosure: I voted for Joe Biden in the Michigan primary.) So now my vote wouldn't matter, and the nomination given to some other Democrat instead? Biden would have to be in pretty bad shape for such a scenario, and he looks to be in good shape judging by the polls (compared to other Dems) and his overall performance in terms of governing the country. The only area in which he has faltered is in answering off-the-cuff questions from reporters on live TV. That understandably bothers the reporters, but why should that bother the average voter? If Presidential candidates are required to give slick performances on TV in order to serve, then the quality of our candidates will suffer, in favor of style over substance. U.S. Senator John Fetterman (who has said that Biden should stay in the race) won his race against a slick TV-ready opponent (Dr. Oz) despite Fetterman's physical challenges. The voters had their own priorities and opinions about the candidates, regardless of the hand-wringing among the pundits.
Adam Schiff claimed on Meet the Press yesterday, however, that Biden ought to be doing even better than he is doing against Trump, since Trump is "a criminal" and all. Schiff has said that Biden needs to win "overwhelmingly" in order to quell any doubt about the legitimacy of the results propagated by Trump supporters. For this reason, Schiff stated that Biden ought to consider whether he is capable of doing so, and if not, then we should be looking for another nominee, who can do better than Biden against Trump.
There's little chance that any Democratic candidate is going to win the election in sufficiently "overwhelming" numbers to stop Trump from claiming that it was stolen. After all, Biden won Michigan in 2020 by over 154,000 votes, but that large number didn't prevent claims of election fraud by many Republicans, who shamefully followed Trump's lead in trying to discount the results.
Many Democrats like Schiff, and the mainstream news media, underestimate Trump's extraordinary popularity with a large segment of the American public -- particularly his hold on their imagination. He appeals to voters who like the idea of rooting for someone who is unconventional and annoys the Establishment. Putting up a "safe" Governor like Newsom or Whitmer against the erratic Trump isn't necessarily appealing to those independent-minded voters.
So, now Biden finds himself in the position of being the candidate that the media clearly wants off the stage. Any criticism of Biden from any obscure Democrat is now going to be amplified in the press beyond its actual significance. They are out to get him now, and that may (ironically) end up being the best thing for his candidacy in the long run.
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